Tour de France 2025 Stage 15: Puncheurs and sprinters face off on rolling road to Carcassonne

Tour de France 2025 Stage 15 is a tactical battle across 2,400 metres of elevation. Can the sprinters survive the climbs, or will the breakaway steal the show in Carcassonne?

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by The Tipster

1 month ago 0 162

Tour de France 2025 Stage 15

🌄 Tour de France 2025 Stage 15: A stage for the strongmen

With the Pyrenean peaks behind them and a rest day on the horizon, Tour de France 2025 Stage 15 offers no relief — only opportunity.

The 169.3-kilometre route from Muret to Carcassonne is no mountain stage, but don’t mistake that for easy. With 2,400 metres of elevation gain — most of it stacked in the second half — the route plays into the hands of punchy sprinters, classics riders, and breakaway hopefuls.

It’s a test of who’s still got fire in the legs after two grueling weeks.

📍 Route breakdown: Punch after punch

Distance: 169.3 km
Elevation: 2,400 m
Key climbs:
- Côte d’Auterive (1.7 km @ 3.9%)
- Côte de Naillous (1.2 km @ 5.4%)
- Saint-Félix-de-Lauragais (2.5 km @ 3.3%)
- Côte de Saint-Ferréol (1.7 km @ 7.0%)
- Côte de Sorèze (6.2 km @ 5.5%)
- Pas du Sant (2.9 km @ 10.2%)
- Col de Fontbruno (3.8 km @ 3.8%)

🧠 Tactics over terrain

This isn't just about legs — it’s a day for tactical thinking. Sprint teams will want to protect their fast men, but they’ll be walking a tightrope: control the race too hard, and risk blowing up on the climbs. Let the break go too far, and the stage is lost.

The Pas du Sant, with its punishing 10.2% gradient, is the most dangerous flashpoint. If the pure sprinters crack there — or on the follow-up to Fontbruno — they won’t see the front again.

And with 34 kilometres of descending to follow, any gap could quickly become decisive.

🥇 A mix of power and patience

Tour de France 2025 Stage 15 is ideal for riders like Mathieu van der Poel, Wout van Aert, and Quinn Simmons — powerful, versatile, and not afraid of a hard day.

Van der Poel is especially intriguing. Will he wait for the sprint, or light things up in the break? His Alpecin-Deceuninck team could play it both ways — especially with Kaden Groves as a second option if things stay together.

And then there’s Mauro Schmid, Axel Laurance, and Fred Wright — all capable of surfing the chaos and stealing it late.

⏱️ GC calm before another storm?

After the fireworks of Superbagnères, Pogacar and the GC men are likely to sit tight today. Expect them to finish safely in the bunch and save energy for what’s still to come.

The abandonment of Remco Evenepoel has reshaped the podium picture — but for today, it's the fast finishers who take center stage.

🏁 Who’s most likely to win Tour de France 2025 Stage 15?

Top favourites:

*** Mathieu van der Poel, Wout van Aert, Quinn Simmons, Mauro Schmid
** Jasper Stuyven, Danny van Poppel, Axel Laurance, Fred Wright
- Tim Merlier, Kaden Groves, Jonathan Milan, Biniam Girmay, Kasper Asgreen

🧾 Recap from Stage 14: Arensman reigns in the Pyrenees

Thymen Arensman powered away on the Col de Peyresourde and held off the GC favourites by over a minute, claiming a career-defining victory at Superbagnères. Tadej Pogacar extended his lead in yellow, while Remco Evenepoel abandoned.

GC Top 5 after Stage 14: