A Clash Between This Season’s Big Premier League Surprises
A Clash Between This Season’s Big Premier League Surprises
When Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest faced off at the City Ground in August, ending in a 1-1 draw, few could have predicted they’d both be in the conversation for a top-four finish come January. Forest had narrowly avoided relegation the previous season, while Bournemouth finished in the bottom half after losing their final three matches. Now, halfway through the season, Forest sits third in the Premier League, and Bournemouth, riding a ten-match unbeaten streak and fresh off a commanding away win against Newcastle, is also firmly in the race for Champions League football. Against all odds.
Teams challenging Liverpool for the title have faltered one by one. Chelsea briefly surged but collected just three points from 15 before a win against Wolves on Monday. Newcastle seemed unstoppable for a time but imploded last weekend. Arsenal remains Liverpool’s closest competitor but has shown cracks, drawing four of their last eight league games. Meanwhile, Manchester City has begun to pick up momentum with five unbeaten matches, but their inconsistency was exposed midweek when they squandered a 2-0 lead and lost 4-2 to PSG in the Champions League. They now face their toughest stretch of the season, with Chelsea, Arsenal, Newcastle, and Liverpool as their next four opponents.
The most consistent teams outside of Liverpool have been, surprisingly, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth. Over their last ten matches, Forest has collected a league-best 25 points, while Bournemouth and Arsenal have each earned 22—matching Liverpool’s tally.
Both Forest and Bournemouth are defying expectations, but their thin squads could face challenges as the season grinds on. Forest has largely avoided injury woes, with only Ibrahim Sangaré sidelined. The club appears eager to strengthen in the January transfer window, with rumors of a big-money bid for Wolves forward Matheus Cunha and interest in Brentford’s Yoane Wissa.
Bournemouth, on the other hand, has faced significant injury setbacks. While they boast a starting XI capable of dominating opponents—as evidenced by their win over Newcastle—the bench offers few viable options. Key players Evanilson and Enes Ünal are out with long-term injuries, and the injury list is in double digits heading into the weekend. Yet, despite these challenges, manager Andoni Iraola’s side has secured impressive wins over Arsenal, Tottenham, Newcastle, Manchester United, and Manchester City this season.
The thought of Bournemouth competing in Europe with a stadium that holds just 11,000 fans is a delightful prospect. With a win on Saturday, they’d close the gap to Forest to just four points.
Both teams are eyeing Champions League qualification, a dream made more achievable if England is awarded five spots next season. Liverpool’s dominance in Europe bolsters this possibility. The league leaders secured their place as a top-two seed for the Champions League knockout stages with a midweek win over Lille, earning valuable coefficient points. This strengthens England’s position over Italy, Spain, and Portugal in the UEFA rankings, even as Aston Villa and Manchester City contribute little to the cause. Good news for this weekend’s rivals at the Vitality Stadium.
Bournemouth’s lengthy injury list includes Adam Smith, Luis Sinisterra, and Alex Scott, with Marcus Tavernier also a doubt for Saturday. Despite their absences, the Cherries have scored twice as many goals away as at home this season and remain unbeaten in their last nine meetings with Forest.
For Nottingham Forest, Ibrahim Sangaré remains the only confirmed absentee. Callum Hudson-Odoi is doubtful after picking up a groin issue against Southampton last weekend. A win at the Vitality Stadium would see Forest achieve five consecutive away victories for the first time in 31 years.
Nottingham Forest is flying high, but Bournemouth has been equally impressive in recent weeks. Their dominant 4-1 win over Newcastle away last weekend underscores their resilience, even with a depleted squad. Both teams to score (BTTS) is a solid option, but a home win also looks tempting.
Our pick: Home win at 2.12 odds with Betsmith (3 units).