Packers vs Dolphins Thanksgiving Betting Preview: Why Green Bay -3 is the Best Bet

Get the best insights with our Packers vs Dolphins Thanksgiving Betting Preview. Discover why Green Bay -3 is the top NFL bet for Thanksgiving night. Analysis, predictions, and betting advice included!

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by The Tipster

1 week ago 0 104

Packers vs Dolphins Thanksgiving Betting Preview

If you're hunting for a winning play this Thanksgiving, this Packers vs Dolphins Thanksgiving Betting Preview explains why Green Bay -3 is the best bet for Thursday night's marquee matchup. With a combination of home-field dominance, balanced offense, and a turnover-savvy defense, the Packers are positioned to cover the spread against a road-weary Miami Dolphins squad.

Game Details

Matchup: Miami Dolphins (5-6) vs. Green Bay Packers (8-3)
Date: Thursday, November 28, 2024
Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Broadcast: NBC
Spread: Packers -3 (-125)

This Packers vs Dolphins Thanksgiving Betting Preview dives deep into why Green Bay has the edge.

Top Reasons Green Bay -3 is the Best Bet

1. Packers’ Thanksgiving Home Field Advantage

Green Bay rarely hosts Thanksgiving games, making this Lambeau Field matchup a special occasion. The Packers have been dominant at home this season and haven’t lost to the Dolphins in Green Bay since 2010.

2. Packers’ Offensive Firepower

The Packers rank:

Tied for 5th overall in offense
3rd in rushing
8th in scoring

Running back Josh Jacobs is the centerpiece of their success, sitting third in the NFL in rushing yards and recording seven touchdowns in his last five games. Jacobs’ ability to wear down defenses makes Green Bay’s offense tough to stop, especially at home.

3. Turnover Edge and Defensive Strength

Green Bay’s plus-8 turnover differential is a key advantage over Miami’s minus-1.
Safety Xavier McKinney, tied for the NFL lead with seven interceptions, anchors a defense that has scored 83 points off turnovers this season, second only to Buffalo.

4. Dolphins’ Road Struggles

Miami is just 2-4 away from home this season, and injuries to key players like CB Kendall Fuller and OT Terron Armstead add to their woes. The Dolphins’ defense has been solid against the run but faces a steep challenge against a Packers offense firing on all cylinders.

Key Matchups to Watch

Josh Jacobs vs. Dolphins Run Defense

Jacobs has been nearly unstoppable, and while Miami ranks 9th against the run, containing him will be critical to their success. Green Bay’s offensive line has been excellent in creating opportunities for Jacobs to shine.

Packers Defense vs. Tua Tagovailoa

While Tua has been impressive since returning from injury, the Packers' opportunistic defense could make life difficult for him. In their last meeting, Green Bay intercepted Tua three times, and they’ll look to repeat that performance.

Historical Trends

Green Bay has won the last three games in this series, including a 26-20 victory in 2022.
Miami hasn’t won at Lambeau Field since 2010.
The Packers are 4-0 against AFC teams this season, showcasing their ability to handle non-conference opponents.

Betting Recommendation

For this Packers vs Dolphins Thanksgiving Betting Preview, the recommendation is clear: take the Packers to cover -3. Their offensive balance, defensive playmaking, and home-field edge make them the better pick against a Dolphins team that has been inconsistent on the road.