Champions League: Real Madrid vs AC Milan

A rare and monumental clash in Champions League is set for tonight as two of Europe’s most storied and successful clubs face off at the mighty Santiago Bernabéu in Spain’s capital.

The new Champions League format has already made established giants start to sweat in their battle to secure a spot in the Round of 16—a stage that was practically a formality for the elite in the previous group-stage format. Even Real Madrid, with two wins in three matches, doesn’t rank among the top eight going into tonight’s round, currently sitting in 11th place. AC Milan is in an even worse position, down in 25th place, which doesn’t even qualify for a playoff for the Round of 16.

Major Defensive Issues

Real Madrid saw their away game against Valencia canceled over the weekend due to the tragic flooding in the Valencia region. Their most recent memory of a match, then, remains their 4-0 loss to Barcelona in El Clásico. Manager Carlo Ancelotti has struggled to get the team to gel with this summer’s major signing, Kylian Mbappé.

The team has simply not come together at times and had to rely on all its experience and winning mentality to turn a 0-2 deficit into an impressive 5-2 win against Dortmund in the last CL round. They’re also dealing with several key injuries. David Alaba, out long-term, isn’t expected back until the new year, and Dani Carvajal is done for the season. Meanwhile, Thibaut Courtois and Rodrygo have joined them in the treatment room.

AC Milan has managed only one win in their first three Champions League matches, and even in their 3-1 win over Club Brugge, the Belgians dominated large portions of the game at San Siro. Things haven’t gone smoothly in Serie A either, with AC Milan down to 7th place domestically after winning five of their first ten matches. Paulo Fonseca faces the challenge of picking a lineup without long-term absentees Alessandro Florenzi and Ismaël Bennacer, as well as center-back Matteo Gabbia.

Betting Tip

Real Madrid vs AC Milan (Champions League)Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals

Real Madrid’s defense has simply been lacking for much of this fall, keeping clean sheets in only five of 15 matches in all competitions—a better outcome than their defensive play deserved. Champions League games at home typically lead to excitement, with BTTS and at least three goals in all four of Real Madrid’s last home games. BTTS and over 2.5 goals have also occurred in five of AC Milan’s last six Champions League games, so we have good reason to expect goals on both sides here, in abundance.