One should be cautious not to read too much into the first two Premier League matches. This game is an excellent example of that.
Wolves, unlike Forest—who have drawn against Bournemouth and beaten newly promoted Southampton—have been unlucky with their opening fixtures this Premier League season. The away game against Arsenal was as expected but far from a rout or a humiliating experience—quite the opposite. They had a great chance when the score was 1-0 and only lost 1.24 to 0.47 on “expected goals.”
Against Chelsea, much went wrong, and Wolves ultimately lost 6-2, but it’s easy to get blinded by the scoreline. From the outside, one might think, “Wow, Chelsea will be a top contender, while Wolves must be among the worst in the league.” The shot statistics show 12-14, and if you look at “big chances created,” it indicates a relatively even match: 5-5. Again, one can—should?—look deeper than the result.
Football is largely about margins, and here I believe the odds market is putting too much emphasis on a grotesque 2-6 result, which was, after all, against a team with many brilliant individual players. Last year, Wolves were a reliable football team under Gary O'Neil, and as I see it, there's nothing to suggest they’ve suddenly become radically worse overnight.
Nottingham Forest, particularly under such a pragmatic coach as Nuno, is a “reactive” team that thrives best when they can play on the counterattack. Here, they’ll have to accept being the favorites, a role that doesn’t suit them particularly well.
There’s a risk of a draw, so I want to bet on getting our money back if it ends in a draw, but a win if the visitors from Wolverhampton take all three points.
I’ll add that Wolves have yet to lose to Forest since they were promoted to the Premier League in 2021.
