With each completed cup round, we are getting closer to the highlight of the year: the A-League season opener. And while the start of the season is always tricky for us bettors, the A-League is unlike most other league openers. In this league, players switch clubs at an extreme pace. While those who have made their breakthrough head overseas, the others switch between teams within the league. This causes a shift in power from year to year, and these two clubs are no exception. However, Adelaide’s turnover has been far more significant than WSW’s.
Adelaide Utd
Although the results have been average, and last year bordering on disappointing, one man hasn’t been replaced. Carl Veart has retained the trust to stay at the helm of the Adelaide ship. This might not be a bad thing, as he has an offensive philosophy and is good at giving young talents opportunities. This has brought the club plenty of money over the last year. In the summer, Irankunda went to Bayern Munich, and although he will be missed, the money he left behind will be very useful.
But he wasn’t the only one who left, to say the least. In fact, Adelaide has had to renew their entire attacking line. Irankunda, Ibusuki, and Halloran had it all. While Irankunda was fast, technical, and unpredictable, Halloran was hard-running, smart, and a great passer. At the top, Ibusuki had a strong presence and immense aerial ability. These will be difficult to replace.
It’s doubtful that any of the newcomers can match them, and it says a lot about the depth and youth development in the club that they can recruit new players internally for these positions. But are they just as good? So far, they’ve delivered decent results without being overly impressive. They’ve handled cup opponents like Blacktown City and Olympic Kingsway, but both of these teams play in lower divisions. However, they conceded two goals against both, which suggests that the absence of Ben Warland may be felt more than initially thought.
Western Sydney Wanderers
Looking at today’s opponent, they might be one of the few teams that have managed to keep their stars, with a few exceptions. Captain Marcelo will leave a big gap in defense, and Lachlan Brook eventually outgrew this league. But they have managed to retain Milanovic, Borello, and Antonsson, and it seems like Sapsford has matured over the summer. Just as importantly, they have brought in Alen Stajic, my favorite coach. He impressed me years ago when he lifted Central Coast Mariners from the ruins the club was in at the time, and after a short stint as the national team coach for the Philippine women’s team, he returned with Perth Glory. It was a tough job, but he did a lot with little. Now, he’s finally getting a chance at a big club, and I believe it will go very well. Additionally, WSW has signed established stars like Kraev from Wellington Phoenix and Juan Mata, whom we know from Manchester United.
It’s still early, and that should be reflected in our betting strategy, but the cup games so far have shown that WSW could challenge the best this year. Mark Rudan’s defensive approach is gone, and now Stajic’s offensive ideas are taking over. And he certainly has the squad to succeed. But is this game too soon?
We don’t think so. WSW has shown impressive form so far in the cup, and they also beat the newcomers Auckland FC in a friendly recently. Overall, they have averaged 3.33 goals in one friendly and two cup games. They also have the advantage of a squad that looks surprisingly similar to last year’s, meaning they don’t need as much time as other teams to establish chemistry. Moreover, they haven’t lost at Coopers Stadium in their last eight games. The record is 4-4-0, and they’ve scored over 1.5 goals in seven of those. The last time they lost here was in 2017. Now, with WSW looking much stronger on paper than their opponent, we’re a bit surprised that the bookmakers have set the teams as equals.
Conclusion
But it’s still early. And it’s the cup. And it’s Australia. We know surprises can happen. But we also know there will be goals. Over 2.5 goals is offered at a modest 1.40, and considering both teams have lost their best defenders and that both are stronger offensively than defensively, we believe that odd is fair. But it’s also an odd we’ll avoid. However, since we expect a high-scoring match and we consider the away team slight favorites, we settle on the following bet:
Australia 11:30: Adelaide Utd – Western Sydney Wanderers: Over 1.5 goals for WSW (1.78)
Alternative bets:
- Australia 11:30: Adelaide Utd – Western Sydney Wanderers: Over 3 goals – Asian (1.61)
- Australia 11:30: Adelaide Utd – Western Sydney Wanderers: Over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half (1.61)
- Australia 11:30: Adelaide Utd – Western Sydney Wanderers: WSW to win – Draw no bet (1.85)
