UFC 311: Can Moicano Overcome the Odds?

Tonight, UFC 311 promises an electrifying evening packed with thrilling matchups, with two title belts on the line.

Islam Makhachev vs Renato Moicano

Lightweight Title Fight

Renato Moicano steps in as a last-minute replacement for Arman Tsarukyan, who withdrew from the title bout against champion Islam Makhachev due to back issues. Predictably, the Brazilian enters as a significant underdog. However, “Money Moicano” comes to Inglewood, California, riding a four-fight win streak. His latest victory, an impressive TKO over Benoit St. Denis last fall, showcased his striking prowess.

Moicano has only been finished three times in his career but faces a formidable challenge in Makhachev. The Dagestani champion, known for his ruthless grappling, boasts 17 finishes in his 26 wins. With 14 consecutive victories since a shocking knockout loss to Adriano Martins in 2015, Makhachev remains undefeated for nearly a decade. Expect the champion’s grappling expertise to overwhelm Moicano, and don’t expect this bout to reach the championship rounds.

Prediction: Makhachev via submission (+100 at Betsmith)
Bet: 3 units

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Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov

Bantamweight Title Fight

Rarely does a reigning champion with an 11-fight win streak enter as the underdog. Yet, that's the scenario for Merab Dvalishvili as he faces the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov in tonight’s co-main event.

Dvalishvili secured the bantamweight belt in September, dismantling the flamboyant Sean O’Malley. His recent victims—O’Malley, Henry Cejudo, Petr Yan, Jose Aldo, and Marlon Moraes—are among the division’s elite. But tonight, he faces a relentless opponent with championship pedigree.

Umar Nurmagomedov, cousin of the legendary Khabib, enters the Octagon with a perfect 18-0 record. Though many of his wins have come against lower-ranked opponents, his dominant victory over Cory Sandhagen last fall hinted at his elite potential. Despite Nurmagomedov’s odds advantage, Dvalishvili’s experience and resilience could make this a compelling contest. For the champion, finishing the fight before the judges weigh in will be critical.

Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili wins inside distance (+800 at Betsmith)
Bet: 2 units

UFC 311 Bets

• Islam Makhachev vs Renato Moicano: Makhachev via submission (+100)
• Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov: Dvalishvili inside distance (+800)
• Jamahal Hill vs Jiří Procházka: Procházka via KO (+200)
• Kevin Holland vs Reinier de Ridder: de Ridder to win (-109)

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