Hawks to Outfly the Heat: Why Atlanta Will Cover the -1.5 Spread

As we approach the midway point of the 2024-2025 NBA season, the Atlanta Hawks (14-12) and the Miami Heat (15-13) are gearing up for a pivotal Southeast Division clash.

A Southeast Division Showdown

Both teams are vying for playoff positioning, with the Heat narrowly leading the division. While the Heat have relied on veteran leadership, the Hawks are leaning on youthful energy to stay competitive. Here’s why Atlanta has the edge in this matchup.

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Season Snapshot: How Do the Teams Compare?

The Miami Heat have been solid this season, averaging 111.4 points per game while holding opponents to 110.2. Jimmy Butler has been their linchpin, leading the team with 23.5 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game. Bam Adebayo has also been a force, contributing 20.8 points and 9.7 rebounds per game. However, the Heat's offensive pace ranks 26th in the league, often relying on their defense to win tight games.

The Hawks, on the other hand, are playing a more fast-paced game, averaging 115.8 points per game (6th in the NBA). Trae Young has been stellar, averaging 27.3 points and 9.1 assists per game, making him one of the league’s top facilitators. Alongside Young, Dejounte Murray has added 21.2 points and 6.4 assists per game. Atlanta's offensive efficiency and tempo give them an edge in high-scoring battles.

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The Hawks are coming off a statement win against the Pacers, where they scored a season-high 144 points. Over their last five games, Atlanta has gone 3-2, showcasing improved chemistry and bench production, particularly from Bogdan Bogdanović, who’s averaging 15.1 points on 40% shooting from deep.

Meanwhile, the Heat have struggled with consistency, losing three of their last five games. Their recent loss to the Bucks exposed their lack of depth, as they failed to maintain defensive intensity in the absence of Jimmy Butler. Miami’s bench ranks 23rd in points per game, a stark contrast to Atlanta’s deeper rotation.

Key Injuries: How They Impact the Game

The Heat are in a tough spot with multiple injuries. Jimmy Butler, the team’s emotional and offensive leader, is out due to load management. Additionally, Josh Richardson is sidelined with a heel injury, and Nikola Jović is questionable with an ankle sprain.

For the Hawks, the absence of rookie Kobe Bufkin (shoulder surgery) limits their guard depth, but it’s a minor setback compared to Miami’s challenges. With most of their core players healthy, Atlanta is well-positioned to capitalize.

Prediction: Why the Hawks Will Cover the Spread

Atlanta’s offensive firepower and faster pace will likely overwhelm Miami’s shorthanded roster. The Hawks’ ability to generate points in transition, combined with Miami’s lack of depth and scoring options without Butler, makes this a favorable matchup for Atlanta.

Expect Trae Young and Dejounte Murray to orchestrate a high-scoring affair, with Clint Capela anchoring the defense against Bam Adebayo. The Hawks are poised to secure a victory by at least two points, further tightening the Southeast Division race.

With both teams battling for momentum, this game could define their seasons. But with Atlanta’s explosive offense and Miami’s injury woes, the Hawks are ready to outfly the Heat. We place a 4 unit stake on this -116 bet via our friends at Betsmith.