The people of Amsterdam can finally smile again. It’s been a tough year for Ajax supporters. At one point last year, they were below the relegation line in the Eredivisie, and the victory against PSV this weekend was clear proof of how far they’ve come over the past year.
Ajax – A team on the up
Once again, it’s PSV and Ajax at the top of the Eredivisie. Balance has been restored. But at this time last year, there was little to suggest that would be the case. The club was in free fall, and fortunately, Maurice Steijn was released from his contract. With a PPG (points per game) of 0.91, few coaches in recent times have posted such poor results, and with Francesco Farioli at the helm, everything changed. Literally.
It’s not only that Ajax now has a PPG of 2.53, but the style of play has also changed. Attacking at the expense of defense has been replaced with control, overload, and balance. It may have taken a foreign coach to abandon the Dutch naivety. The Italian is the first foreigner in Ajax’s head coach position since Morten Olsen left in 1998.
The new style of play has also meant that Ajax no longer scores the most goals in the Netherlands. Both PSV and Feyenoord score more. However, it has also meant that Ajax concedes the fewest goals of all teams: 9 goals conceded in 10 league games in the Eredivisie and 1 goal conceded in 3 games in the Europa League. This is perfect timing, as they welcome an out-of-form Israeli team.
Of course, Dutch football is in the DNA of the players, fans, and club itself. With players like Brobbey, Traore, Godts, Akpom, Berghuis, Klaassen, and Taylor, they will always lean forward in attack. Unfortunately, we won’t see Kristian Hlynsson or Norway’s Sivert Heggheim Mannsverk. But the home team should be more than strong enough to make quick work of the visitors, especially at home. They currently stand at 5-0-0 in the Eredivisie and 1-0-0 in the Europa League.
Guest to leave empty-handed
Maccabi Tel Aviv hasn’t had a pleasant experience in this year’s Europa League. With a 0-0-3 record, they are third from the bottom on the table, and there’s a good chance they’ll have to settle for last place after tonight’s game. To be fair to the away team, they have faced Real Sociedad, Braga, and FC Midtjylland, but their poor form extends to their domestic league as well. They have a 2-1-2 record in their last 5 games, with losses in the last two, most recently against mid-table Kiryat Shmona.
And as if that weren’t enough, they’ll be without winger Davida Osher for this match. Named Man of the Match in the top game against Beitar Jerusalem and with international experience from St. Liege, he will miss the game due to suspension. They’re also missing international players like Stojic in defense and Sissokho in midfield. Other absences are long-term injuries, which we’re not placing much emphasis on.
All eggs in one basket
With 7 points from 3 games, a home win could make all the difference. Ajax knows that the next two matches will be significantly tougher, as they first face Real Sociedad in San Sebastián before hosting Lazio at home in Amsterdam. For the away team, there’s a good chance that their journey is effectively over. Next round, they head to Turkey to face Besiktas, which could leave them with 0 points after 5 games. It might be wise for them to focus on their domestic league while they’re still within reach of the top.
So, we’re backing bets on the home team in various forms. Given Ajax’s solid defensive foundation, a handicap bet feels reasonable, as we doubt Maccabi Tel Aviv will score many goals. We envision a game where the home team dominates while the away team sits back, defending low and compact. Don’t be surprised if Ajax earns a few corners before sealing the victory. Over 5.5 corners for the home team is currently at 1.68.
But we’re tempted to go with a European handicap bet of -1.5, which is available at 1.98. If a safer option is preferred, an Asian handicap of -1 can be considered at 1.53 odds. With a tough away game against Twente on Sunday, there’s a chance Ajax might ease up after going 1-0 up. In any case, good luck!
