The third round of World Cup qualifying kicks off in Asia, and right from the first match, North Korea faces a trip to Tashkent. They've been there seven times before and have never returned home with three points. The record stands at 5-2-0 in favor of the home team, and rarely has the disparity in strength been so large.
It may sound strange, but Uzbekistan is on its way to becoming a football nation. After a series of impressive results, they've climbed from 100th to 61st in the FIFA rankings. Among these achievements is their unbeaten run in the previous group stage, where they faced Iran both home and away.
Many of the national team players have now gained plenty of experience, and the group is very well-coordinated. This is evident on the pitch. Additionally, several of them are playing weekly at a high level for clubs like Rubin Kazan, Lens, Esteghlal, Sivasspor, CSKA Moscow, and Roma.
The home team has lost only four of their last 30 matches, reached the quarterfinals of the Asian Cup, and took home the silver medal in the CAFA Nations Cup. Now, they are dreaming of World Cup participation. While it might not be highly likely, given the number of strong teams in Asia and the tough qualification process, they are determined to make a respectable attempt. North Korea, however, should not be in a position to derail Uzbekistan's efforts.
For the North Koreans, who hail from a very closed-off country, the team is relatively new. North Korea had a four-year break from international football, from 2019 to 2023, and has only managed to play eight games together since then, with a record of 3-1-4. They’ve beaten Myanmar twice and Syria once—two teams ranked much lower than today’s home team.
The challenge here is that relatively few goals are scored in North Korea's matches. Although they lost 0-3 at home to Japan, they only lost 1-0 away to the same team. This trend holds in their other away games. Since their return in 2023, their away record is 1-1-3, but they’ve only conceded more than one goal once. That was in their last match, a 2-1 away loss to Jordan.
This is reflected in the odds, as there's a significant difference between the result and the goal market. A straight home win pays 1.37, while over 1.5 goals for Uzbekistan pays a full 1.65. For the brave, -1.5 on the handicap offers odds of 2.15. In fact, Uzbekistan has scored over 1.5 goals in seven of their last 10 home games, and in four of these, they’ve covered a handicap bet. So the bold might be handsomely rewarded here.
We’re steering clear of such low home odds, but we do see good value in a strong home team being able to score two goals past the visitors' goalkeeper. Therefore, our bet is as follows:
World Cup Qualifier 16:00: Uzbekistan vs. North Korea – Over 1.5 goals for Uzbekistan (1.65)
