The season start hasn’t gone as expected for either of these teams. While the home side stands at 1-0-2 after the first three league matches of the year, the away team sits at 0-3-0. Both teams need points if they are to meet their goal of finishing in the top 6, and with each passing week, they fall further behind the teams ahead of them in the standings – unless they manage to turn things around.
Atalanta
Gian Piero Gasperini is still at the helm of Atalanta and has been since 2016. Over these eight years, he has filled Bergamo with attacking football, taken Atalanta into the Champions League, and brought in colorful personalities and fantastic players such as Duvan Zapata, “Papu” Gomez, and Ruslan Malinovskyi. However, his contract expires in June 2025, and it will be interesting to see if he extends or decides to leave or retire. By the end of the contract, he’ll be 67 years old, and judging by his sideline energy, it seems like he still has a few years left in the game. He likely wants to accomplish something in his final contract year. As anyone who has been involved in contract negotiations knows, that is an advantage. But Atalanta needs to start picking up more points.
The three mentioned players have passed their prime, but their successors are cut from the same cloth. Lookman, De Ketelaere, and newcomer Retegui are offensive players who fit perfectly into Gasperini’s philosophy. And I have no doubt that Atalanta will come flying out of the blocks here. The home fans expect a win, they know they can win, and they know they should win. But with a goal difference of 5-6 over three games, they’ve been too vulnerable defensively for us to confidently put our money on the home side.
However, we know they will attack, we know there’s a high chance they’ll score, and both we and they know there’s, unfortunately, a good chance they will concede as well. That’s why the 1.77 odds on over 2.5 goals is appealing, especially when we consider that Atalanta’s games have averaged 3.7 goals so far this year.
Atalanta’s matches often ebb and flow. And now that both Scalvini and Djimsiti are missing in defense, there’s an even greater chance they’ll concede to the opponent. Additionally, Gasperini prefers to play with high defensive risk to draw opponents out of their own half, and we know that tactic can go either way. If we look at the corner statistics, this aligns well with the picture we’re trying to paint. They create 4.33 corners per game and concede 4.00 corners per game. That’s enough for us.
Fiorentina
We’re tempted by the odds on goals, but the reason it’s not our main bet is the away team. So far this year, they have a goal difference of 3-3, averaging just 2 goals per game. The sample size is small, but looking at the entire previous season, the average wasn’t much higher at 2.8 goals per game, even though last year’s encounter ended 3-2.
These teams also met in the semi-finals of last year’s cup, where Atalanta won 4-1. So recent history is both high-scoring and favors Atalanta. Nevertheless, we’re not going for a home win or goals. There’s another interesting factor with Fiorentina, and that’s their corner average, a trend carried over from last season. So far this year, they’ve created an average of 7.33 corners per game. And although they’ve only allowed 2.33 corners per game this year, remember those games were against Monza, Venezia, and Parma – three teams that don’t compare to Atalanta’s offensive firepower. Fiorentina will be under pressure at times, and they will likely concede more corners than they have so far this year.
But they will also get their chances. Most teams do when they visit Bergamo, given Atalanta’s playing style. And although Fiorentina has “only” scored 3 goals in 3 games, their xG suggests they should have scored more. We also know that their key to scoring is through Moise Kean’s head. Fiorentina will likely try to get around the flanks to put in crosses, which is likely a big part of the reason behind their high corner average.
Conclusion
We’re expecting an open and exciting football match between two teams that are off the pace and need to get back on track. In addition to both teams needing points, they also both want to attack – and are capable of doing so. Given Atalanta’s philosophy and Fiorentina’s statistics, we were surprised by the favorable odds on offer.
Therefore, we’re going with the following bet:
Italy 15:00: Atalanta – Fiorentina: Over 8.5 corners (1.76)
Alternative Bet:
Italy 15:00: Atalanta – Fiorentina: Over 2.5 goals (1.77)
