2024 Presidential Election
The 2024 presidential election appears to be a highly competitive race, with several swing states potentially playing a decisive role. While the Democrats are trying to stay in the White House, the Republicans are working to regain the positions they lost in 2020. With 270 electoral votes as the victory threshold, understanding each candidate’s position in key states, recent odds data, and potential paths to victory is crucial.
Previous Polls Underestimated Trump
It’s important to note that in both 2016 and 2020, polls underestimated support for Donald Trump. In 2016, many polls showed Clinton with a solid national lead, 3,2% on election day, , but the result was much closer, with Trump winning several critical swing states that secured his victory in the Electoral College, even while losing the popular vote. Similarly, in 2020, polls showed Biden with larger margins, 7,2% on election day, than he ultimately won in several key states, such as Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Analyses suggest a “hidden” Trump voter base that polls may not capture or that some Trump supporters may not participate in polls as other voter groups do.
In light of this, there may be reason to consider that the 2024 Presidential Election polls may also not fully reflect Trump’s actual support. Betting odds from Pinnacle could therefore offer an alternative perspective based on where the money is placed and how the betting market evaluates chances in light of past polling errors.
Swing States and Their Significance
Swing states, which can lean Democratic or Republican, have alternated support between the two parties in recent elections. In 2020, Joe Biden’s victory relied on states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, each won by very narrow margins. These states, along with Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, are considered critical in the 2024 Presidential Election. The outcome in these states will determine who becomes president.
Using the latest odds from Pinnacle, we can break down the critical swing states into competitive battles. Specifically, these states show unique political dynamics where odds are close and local issues influence results.
2024 Presidential Election Our map
- Arizona (11 electoral votes):
- Odds: Trump 70.15%, Harris 29.85%
- Polls: Recent polls suggest a tighter race in Arizona, with Trump and Harris often within a 5-point difference.
- Comparison: The odds favor Trump more than the polls. While polls show a near-even race, odds reflect stronger confidence in Trump, possibly due to Arizona’s traditionally Republican tilt in presidential elections. A mix of young and Latino voters has bolstered Democratic growth, but conservative support remains strong in rural areas.
- Florida (29 electoral votes):
- Odds: Trump 92.78%, Harris 7.22%
- Polls: Florida polls generally show Trump with a clear lead, but not as large as the odds suggest, with Trump leading by 6-8 points.
- Comparison: Both odds and polls agree Trump is likely to win, but the odds amplify his lead more than the polls. This may reflect confidence in Trump’s sustained support among conservative Floridian and senior voters, known for high voter turnout.
- Georgia (16 electoral votes):
- Odds: Trump 66.99%, Harris 33.01%
- Polls: Recent polls in Georgia show a close race, often with only a few percentage points between candidates, suggesting an uncertain outcome.
- Comparison: Polls indicate a tighter race than the odds, with both parties ramping up efforts in this emerging swing state. While the odds favor Trump, polls suggest a possible Democratic challenge, likely influenced by demographic changes in Atlanta and surrounding suburbs.
- Michigan (16 electoral votes):
- Odds: Trump 47.95%, Harris 52.05%
- Polls: Polls in Michigan are generally even, with a slight edge for Harris, as also reflected in the odds. Most polls show Harris with a small but consistent lead.
- Comparison: Both odds and polls align well, suggesting Michigan leans slightly Democratic. Harris’s lead is reflected in both the polls and betting market, likely due to Detroit’s Democratic base and union support.
- Nevada (6 electoral votes):
- Odds: Trump 61.46%, Harris 38.54%
- Polls: Polls in Nevada show a close race, with both candidates often within 2-3 percentage points.
- Comparison: Odds give Trump a more significant lead than the polls, indicating a near-swing state. This difference may be due to concerns about voter turnout or demographic shifts, with odds reflecting Republican confidence in outperforming Democrats in rural Nevada.
- New Hampshire (4 electoral votes):
- Odds: Trump 17.88%, Harris 82.12%
- Polls: Polls consistently show Harris leading in New Hampshire by 8-10 points, confirming a Democratic advantage.
- Comparison: Both odds and polls strongly favor Harris, showing New Hampshire as a relatively secure Democratic state, in line with recent elections.
- North Carolina (15 electoral votes):
- Odds: Trump 67.13%, Harris 32.87%
- Polls: Polls in North Carolina show Trump leading by about 4-5 points, indicating a Republican advantage without a guaranteed win.
- Comparison: Both odds and polls agree on Trump’s lead, but with slight differences in the margin. The betting market shows more confidence in Trump than polls suggest, possibly due to his strength in rural and suburban areas.
- Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes):
- Odds: Trump 57.35%, Harris 42.65%
- Polls: Polls show a near-even race, often with a 1-2 point difference between candidates.
- Comparison: Polls suggest a closer race than the odds, which give Trump a slight edge. This difference may be due to Pennsylvania’s historical volatility, with odds capturing potential support from rural and suburban voters for Trump, despite tight polling numbers.
- Texas (38 electoral votes):
- Odds: Trump 93.01%, Harris 6.99%
- Polls: Polls in Texas show Trump leading by about 8-10 points, indicating a solid Republican advantage.
- Comparison: Both odds and polls show Trump’s strong position in Texas, even as odds suggest a nearly certain Republican victory. Polls show more competition than odds suggest, but Texas’s historical support for Republicans leads the betting market to expect a clear Trump win.
- Virginia (13 electoral votes):
- Odds: Trump 18.10%, Harris 81.90%
- Polls: Polls in Virginia show Harris leading by about 10-12 points, confirming Democratic dominance.
- Comparison: Both odds and polls strongly favor Harris, with Virginia as a stable Democratic state, especially due to increasing support in the suburbs of Washington, D.C., and Richmond.
- Wisconsin (10 electoral votes):
- Odds: Trump 53.22%, Harris 46.78%
- Polls: Polls in Wisconsin show a close race, with most polls showing a difference of less than 2 points between the candidates.
- Comparison: Both odds and polls see Wisconsin as a genuine swing state. This alignment suggests Wisconsin may be one of the most hotly contested states in 2024 Presidential Election, with both parties intensifying efforts to win the 10 electoral votes.
Winning the Total Vote Count Isn’t Everything
A unique feature of the U.S. system is that the Electoral College—not the popular vote—decides who wins the presidency. Each state awards a certain number of electoral votes based on population. This means that the candidates can still win the Presidential election by securing victories in key states, even if they don’t have the majority of the nationwide votes. This is how Trump secured his win in 2016.
Democrats often receive the most votes at the national level, especially with high support in large states like California and New York, but many of these states are already safely Democratic and do little to influence swing states. This means large numbers of Democratic votes in California, for example, do not yield more electoral votes since California is already secured as a Democratic state. Republicans often have an advantage in the Electoral College by focusing on smaller states and swing states where the outcome is more uncertain, allowing a potential path to victory without winning the total vote count.
Simulation Results: Predicting the Path to 270
Based on these odds, we ran simulations to estimate the probability of each candidate reaching 270 electoral votes. After 100,000 simulations using these state-specific probabilities, the results were as follows:
- Trump has a 56.63% chance of reaching 270 electoral votes.
- Harris has a 40.15% chance of winning.
These results suggest Trump holds the edge in 2024 Presidential Election, mainly due to favorable odds in states like Arizona, Florida, and Georgia. However, Harris still has a clear path to victory, especially if she retains Rust Belt states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where she remains competitive.
Comparing Odds and Polls
A comparison between odds and polls reveals these main findings:
- Consensus on Strong Positions: In states like Florida, Texas, Virginia, and New Hampshire, odds and polls align closely, suggesting solid leads for Trump or Harris, consistent with recent election results in each state.
- State-Specific Differences Between Polls and Odds:
- Arizona and Georgia show stronger odds for Trump than polls suggest, indicating that while Trump is favored, the margin may be narrower than the betting market implies.
- Nevada also leans more toward Trump in the odds than in the polls, indicating a slightly more positive outlook for him than polling data suggests.
- True Swing States: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin emerge as the most competitive states, with both odds and polls showing tight races. Each of these Rust Belt states has an almost equal likelihood of going to either candidate, making them critical for both campaigns.
Overall Assessment and Final Predictions
Based on current odds and polls, Trump appears to hold a slight advantage, but Harris still has a strong chance to win in key states.
For Trump: It’s crucial to maintain leads in Florida, Arizona, and Georgia. Winning Pennsylvania or Wisconsin could further secure his path to 270. For Harris: She must retain states won in 2020, including Michigan and Pennsylvania, and strengthen her chances by winning swing states Arizona and Georgia.
The current odds and polling suggest a very close election, with the decisive results likely to depend on voter turnout, campaign efforts, and small but potentially critical shifts in voter perception, especially in the most contested areas.
Recommended bets 2024 Presidential Election
1. Arizona: Trump to Win – Odds 1.366 (-273)
2. Georgia: Trump to Win – Odds 1.429 (-233)
3. Nevada: Harris to Win – Odds 2.480 (+148)
4. Michigan: Harris to Win – Odds 1.833 (-120)
5. Wisconsin: Harris to Win – Odds 2.04 (+104)
6. Pennsylvania: Harris to Win – Odds 2.24 (+124)
7. North Carolina: Trump to Win – Odds 1.425 (-235)
2024 Presidential Election: Betting on a mix of Harris in tight Rust Belt states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada can provide good value due to the close polling and minor odds advantage for Trump. Betting on Trump in Arizona and Georgia offers a balance, considering these states’ traditional Republican lean and his recent polling strength.
